Donald Trump leads over 19% in prediction markets against Kamala Harris
Just three weeks ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump continues to widen his lead over Democratic candidate and incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris. Although average national polls see Harris having a slight 2.4% advantage over Trump per FiveThirtyEight, prediction markets — both international and domestic, are projecting higher odds that the media mogul and billionaire will secure a second term. National poll averages as of October 15. Source: FiveThirtyEight Trump’s rise in prediction markets Just two weeks ago, on October 4, international prediction market Polymarket put the odds of another Trump presidency at 50% — with a slight 1% edge over the opposing candidate. At this point, an unexpectedly strong showing from Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, in the vice-presidential debate saw a 0.4% shift in the Republican candidate’s favor. ...